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After Syracuse’s 78-61 loss to Clemson, the Orange (10-6, 4-5 Atlantic Coast) enter the home stretch of its season on the outside of the bubble looking in. 

With seven scheduled conference games remaining, the Orange are more than halfway through its ACC slate. We took a look at the numbers that have defined SU’s season with three weeks remaining in the regular season. 

The Good

Quincy Guerrier’s turnover rate: 5.4%

Quincy Guerrier has been Syracuse’s best and most consistent player this year, breaking out from his limited offensive role from freshman year. He’s had four 20-point games and seven double-doubles. Though he’s improved his 3-point shooting, most of his damage comes inside.

Guerrier compounds his efficient scoring with an astronomically low turnover rate. He’s coughed it up on 5.4% of his possessions thus far, the eighth-lowest rate in Division I. The team as a whole doesn’t turn the ball over much, which helps keeps an offense that has struggled from behind the arc afloat. Guerrier’s a solid passer, but the next frontier for Guerrier is expanding his playmaking ability.

Kadary Richmond’s steal percentage: 5.3%

Freshman point guard Kadary Richmond has been a complete revelation and has already become a favorite not only with the fans, but with the advanced metrics. The analytics like him significantly more than both Joe Girard III and Buddy Boeheim. Richmond leads the team in box plus-minus (8.2) and defensive rating (92.6). His player efficiency rating is also significantly higher than that of Girard and Buddy.

“He’s so lengthy, and he’s just always getting in guys’ heads,” Buddy said on Jan. 31. “You don’t know if you have space to throw the high post because he can get there in a second. He’s a great defender, great instincts and he makes plays that don’t go on the stat sheet sometimes.”

The most glaring number in Richmond’s row is his steal rate. Only four players in Division I generate steals more often than Richmond, whose steal percentage sits at 5.3%. He averages two steals per game despite playing only 21.3 minutes a night. His athleticism, wingspan and instincts have made the freshman a major asset at the top of the zone. 

Team free throw percentage: 79.3%

Elite free throw shooting is part of the reason Syracuse is 5-2 in close games. The first meeting between Syracuse and NC State, for instance, was decided by clutch free throw shooting from a variety of players. SU can play closing lineups without any foul-shooting liabilities, a major advantage most teams don’t enjoy. Jesse Edwards and Bourama Sidibe are the only rotational players shooting below 70% from the stripe. 

Only Virginia is more proficient at the foul stripe than the Orange in the ACC, and SU is ninth in D-I at 79.3%. The national average is 70.9%. 

The Bad 

Team defensive efficiency: 96.7 (81st)

Jim Boeheim has consistently criticized the defense, saying it needs to get better if SU wants to win. He’s said the defense is only as good as the players in it, and that it has at times been as bad as it ever has been. Syracuse has allowed 96 to Pittsburgh and Buffalo, 81 to Vitginia and North Carolina, 79 to Rutgers and 78 to Clemson. The 70.8 points allowed per game is 11th in the ACC.

“Our defense was probably the worst I’ve seen it since I’ve been here,” Boeheim said after Pittsburgh scored 64 second-half points on January 16.

By defensive rating per game, SU’s defense has gotten progressively worse as the season’s worn on. The scary part for Syracuse: opponents are still missing a lot of open 3s. Even with a mediocre defense now, SU is holding opponents to 30.4% from behind the arc, 49th best in the nation. When teams regress back to the mean and start hitting more 3s, Syracuse could be in even more trouble. 

Buddy Boeheim’s 3-point shooting: 29.5%

Syracuse’s best 3-point shooter last season has the fifth-best percentage in 2020-21. He’s behind Woody Newton, Alan Griffin, Girard and Guerrier. His below-average mark is almost eight percentage points lower than last season.  

The then-sophomore led the ACC last year in 3-pointers made per game (3) and percentage (37%). The steep decline has likely been a product of Buddy’s stop-and-go season. He’s had to sit out for both contact tracing and contracting COVID-19. It’s quite possible the time off disrupted his timing and conditioning, and Buddy could have a strong second half of conference play from deep. But Buddy also has the worst defensive rating among rotation players (108.7), so if he doesn’t catch fire quickly, a minutes reduction could be in play. 

Girard’s shot quality: 16th percentile

Girard has had an up-and-down season thus far, and the main reason for his low field goal percentage (35.6%) is shot selection. He has the green light from Boeheim, but takes too many contested 3s and long 2s early in the shot clock. According to ShotQuality, a resource that accounts for 90 variables when determining the quality of a field goal attempt, Girard is in the 16th percentile in SQ points per possession. Forty-five percent of his possessions have been deemed “bad possession” by the site, denoting the percentage of possessions in the 33rd percentile or below. 

Against Clemson, Girard poured in 19 points. He did most of his damage in the paint, and Boeheim said after the game he needs to continue getting downhill to be effective. Free throws, shots at the rim and open 3s are the most efficient looks in basketball, and Girard should hunt them instead of limiting himself to just a jump shooter. 

The Ugly

Offensive rebounds allowed rate: 32.3 (309th) 

Many of Syracuse’s defensive struggles are explained by its inability to close out possessions with defensive rebounds. Limiting opponents to a below-average mark from 3 doesn’t matter when teams are retrieving almost a third of their misses. Sidibe, who led the team in defensive rebounds last season, has played just once since his left knee injury in the season-opener, and he might not ever be able to control the boards like he once did. 

“He’s tried everything he could and his knee’s sore,” Boeheim said after Sidibe recorded zero boards in 11 minutes in his return against Clemson. “It’s hard to play this game when you can’t run and jump … I’m not sure he’s going to be able to do much.” 

SU has been outrebounded in all six of its losses, and its 38.8 defensive rebounds per game are last in the ACC. The issue was particularly glaring against Pittsburgh and North Carolina. Griffin and Guerrier are plus-defenders at their positions, but as long as Marek Dolezaj is playing in the middle of the zone, SU is going to continue to struggle. 

Team 3-point field goal percentage: 31.4%

There are two games from early in the season that are probably long forgotten by most fans — the Boston College and Rider victories. In both those games, SU shot 50% or better from deep, prompting media members to wonder if this group was a special shooting group. Boeheim calmed the hype at the time, but the thought is almost hilarious looking back. 

Syracuse’s 31.4% from 3 is second-to-last in the ACC and 264th in the nation. Take away the BC and Rider games, and the mark plummets to 27.9%, which would be tied for 10th worst in D1. Griffin, Girard and Buddy are all typically good shooters, but only Griffin (35%) is performing up to expectations from the outside. Boeheim has said defenses key in on Girard and Buddy on the perimeter because of their shooting threats, which opens up the lane for bigs. That will only become more true if they can return to form and start drilling more 3s. 

Barttovik’s NCAA Tournament odds projection: 11.5% 

This is the culmination of all the bad and ugly numbers. They’re all connected, and are the biggest reasons why Syracuse is on pace for its seventh straight double-digit loss season — even in an abbreviated year. SU has made the Big Dance three out of the last four years the Tournament was played. 

The 11.5% to reach the NCAA Tournament is the eight-highest in the ACC (Duke notably is at 5.4%). ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi projects six teams from the conference will earn bids.

The Orange have a few opportunities to get quality wins, something they lack right now. SU is 0-5 in Quadrant 1 games — though the Virginia Tech victory will likely count in that category come season’s end. Getting swept by Pittsburgh and blown out by Clemson are stains on the resume. A rematch with North Carolina and games at Duke, Georgia Tech and Louisville loom.

Syracuse will likely have to go 5-2 in its last seven games to put itself in position for a big push in the ACC tournament to mean much. It’s possible, but only if SU greatly improves on the bad and ugly data points before Selection Sunday on March 14. 

Graphs by senior staff writer Anthony Dabbundo.

Published on February 8, 2021 at 10:20 pm

Contact Danny: dremerma@syr.edu | @DannyEmerman