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For the second time in two weeks, Syracuse has to rebound from an embarrassing collapse. On Feb. 18, SU blew a 16-point first-half lead against Pittsburgh, falling 80-69. The Orange responded by handily defeating NC State eight days later. They then had a chance to win a second straight game for the first time since the beginning of January against Virginia Tech, leading by 13 with 11 minutes remaining.

But SU again collapsed. The Orange coughed the ball up 14 times — including 10 times over the last 25 minutes — which allowed VT to grab a late lead. Jaquan Carlos hit a 3-pointer to send the game to overtime, but Syracuse allowed 19 points and fell 101-95.

SU goes on the road for the last time this season to take on SMU. The Mustangs are new to the Atlantic Coast Conference this season, and it’ll be the first-ever time they take on the Orange.

Here’s everything to know about SMU (21-8, 12-6 ACC) ahead of its matchup with Syracuse (12-17, 6-12 ACC) Tuesday:

All-time series

This is the two teams’ first-ever meeting.

KenPom Odds

Syracuse has a 13% chance of winning, with a projected score of 85-72.

The Mustangs report

Last March, SMU fired head coach Rob Lanier after just two seasons. Lanier went 30-35 with the Mustangs and led them to the National Invitation Tournament last season. Ahead of SMU’s move to the ACC, the program hired former USC coach Andy Enfield after he was let go by the Trojans. Under Enfield, the Mustangs are currently on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament, with ESPN’s Joe Lunardi categorizing them as one of the “next four out.”

SMU boasts a balanced attack, with six players averaging at least 10 points, but nobody averages more than 14. Boopie Miller, who has missed the last five games, leads the way with 13.4 per game. Miller is expected to return against Syracuse, according to CBS’ Jon Rothstein.

Before Miller’s injury, the Mustangs were on a five-game winning streak but have gone 2-3 in his absence. Chuck Harris has taken over the mantle as SMU’s No. 1 option in Miller’s place, averaging 16 points per game on 13.2 shots in the last five games.

Cole Ross | Digital Design Director

Even with SMU’s recent slide, it sits fourth in the ACC standings, only behind No. 2 Duke, No. 11 Clemson and No. 14 Louisville. The Mustangs have an efficient offense, ranking 26th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom. They also have an effective field goal percentage of 55.1%, which is 38th in the country.

How Syracuse beats SMU

The story of Syracuse’s struggles in ACC play has been its defense. Virginia Tech entered its game with SU averaging 69 points per game. Even without leading scorer Tobi Lawal, the Hokies scored 63 points in the second half and overtime. If the Orange don’t defend better, they won’t have a chance against SMU. It will be a challenge for Syracuse, considering the Mustangs are averaging 81.7 points per game, the third-most in the ACC. Meanwhile, Syracuse gives up 78.8 points per game.

Keeping SMU off the boards could be crucial to a better defensive performance. The Mustangs rank second in the ACC in offensive rebounds with 13 per game and are 10th in the country in offensive rebounding rate. SMU hauls in 37.9% of its misses, according to KenPom, but the Orange are well-equipped to prevent that.

Syracuse only lets its opponents rebound 26.2% of its misses, a top-30 mark in the country. SU’s frontcourt of Eddie Lampkin Jr., Jyáre Davis and Naheem McLeod will need to have a strong outing to prevent SMU from getting any second-chance points.

Stat to know: 38.4

Player to watch: Matt Cross, forward, No. 33

Cross is at his fourth school in five years and has carved out a nice role with SMU this season. During his first two collegiate seasons, he played a minor part at Miami and Louisville before transferring to UMass. With the Minutemen, he led them in rebounding two straight seasons and increased his scoring average from 12.2 points to 15.3 in 2023-24, leading to an All-Atlantic 10 First-Team selection.

The power forward returned to the Power Four ranks this offseason, transferring to SMU. He’s provided the Mustangs with consistent frontcourt play, averaging 11.9 points and a team-high 7.9 rebounds per game. He’s also knocking down 38.8% of his 3-pointers on four attempts per game.

Published on March 3, 2025 at 9:13 pm

Contact Zak: zakwolf784254@gmail.com | @ZakWolf22