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Syracuse entered its West Coast trip last week on its second winning streak of the season. The Orange had downed Virginia Tech and Wake Forest, but they went winless in California, falling 79-58 to Stanford and 75-69 to Cal.

The Cardinal capitalized on the Orange’s poor 3-point defense, shooting 10-for-22 (45.5%) from beyond the arc to separate themselves in the first quarter and maintain a comfortable cushion for the rest of the game. Sunday at Cal, despite SU’s bench outscoring the Golden Bears’ substitutes 18-7, Syracuse couldn’t prevail.

The fruitless trip out west positions the Orange teetering on the bubble to qualify for the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament as one of the top 15 teams. They currently sit 13th in conference standings, a game ahead of 15th-placed Miami and 16th-ranked Pitt and having played one fewer game than 14th-placed Boston College.

Notching a win to boost its chances will be tough for Syracuse. It next hosts No. 9 North Carolina, which sits third in the ACC standings after defeating then-No. 12 NC State 66-65 Sunday.

Here’s everything to know about No. 9 UNC (23-4, 11-3 ACC) before its contest with Syracuse (10-15, 4-10 ACC) Thursday:

All-time series

Syracuse leads 9-7.

Last time they played …

On Dec. 31, 2023, Syracuse was on cloud nine after defeating then-No. 13 Notre Dame 86-81 to improve its record to 11-1 and enter the AP Poll for the first time in three years. The Tar Heels sent Syracuse crashing back down to earth with a 75-51 win on Jan. 4, 2024. UNC Guard Alyssa Ustby notched the first triple-double in program history with 16 points, 10 assists and 16 rebounds. Meanwhile, the Orange shot a then-season-low 29.6%.

The game was close at halftime, with North Carolina ahead 32-30. But UNC pulled away via a 25-6 third-quarter advantage. SU’s guards struggled, with Dyaisha Fair scoring 17 points and Georgia Woolley mustering just three.

The Orange host No. 9 North Carolina Thursday, which has won 10 of its last 11 games and is projected as a No. 3 seed in Charlie Creme’s latest bracket. Angelina Grevi | Staff Photographer

The Tar Heels report

North Carolina reached its fourth straight NCAA Tournament last season and fell in the second round for the second straight year, getting stomped 88-41 by eventual National Champion South Carolina.

Following the season, UNC lost its top scorer Deja Kelly, who averaged 16.3 points and transferred to Oregon. But its other top-five scorers returned, and success has followed. The Tar Heels started the season ranked No. 15 and went 12-1 in nonconference play. Their only loss came to then-No. 2 UConn on Nov. 15. They notably beat then-No. 14 Kentucky 72-53 on Dec. 5.

UNC dropped its first ACC contest 82-76 to then-No. 25 Georgia Tech and lost its third conference matchup against then-No. 3 Notre Dame 76-66 on Jan. 5. Since then, it’s won 10 of 11 games, including beating three ranked teams — then-No. 14 Duke, then-No. 19 Cal and then-No. 10 NC State.

Four North Carolina players average at least 10 points but none score more than 11. Maria Gakdeng leads the team with 10.9, followed by Ustby (10.7), Reniya Kelly (10.1) and Lexi Donarski (10.0). But defense is where the Tar Heels truly shine, allowing an ACC-best 55.7 points per game and 35.6% opponent field goal percentage. Consequently, they’re a No. 3 seed in Charlie Creme’s latest bracket released Monday.

How Syracuse beats North Carolina

Unlocking UNC’s stifling defense will be a tall task for the Orange. North Carolina’s opponent field-goal percentage is the 11th-lowest in the country, per HerHoopStats. Meanwhile, SU’s offense doesn’t provide much spark. It shoots 41.7% from the field, the fourth-worst mark in the ACC.

Syracuse’s strong suit, offensive rebounding, can be annulled with the Tar Heels ranking in the top 40 nationally in defensive rebounds per game.

North Carolina does struggle at the free-throw line, where it shoots 65.5%, in the bottom 50 nationally, per HerHoopStats. SU’s best chance may be if UNC has to ice the game from the line and capitalize off potential misses. But that scenario would include the Orange keeping the game close, which is unlikely against a juggernaut in North Carolina.

Stat to Know: 55.7

The Tar Heels have the strongest defense in the ACC. They allow 55.7 points per game, nearly three fewer points than Duke, which allows the second-most points. UNC holds opponents to a 35.6% field goal percentage (11th in the nation) and a 39.3% 2-point field goal percentage (13th), per HerHoopStats.

UNC has kept opponents to under 60 points 18 times this season and under 40 points three times, including a 64-33 domination of SMU and a 69-39 blowout of Indiana, which was a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament last season. North Carolina also averages 4.2 blocks per game, 46th in Division I, and 8.5 steals per game.

Player to watch: Alyssa Ustby, guard, No. 1

In her fifth season at UNC, Ustby has been a consistent all-around player. She’s averaged at least 9.9 points per game, 5.7 rebounds and 1.1 steals per contest every year. Though her points average is the lowest since her freshman year at 10.7 and her rebounds per game have slightly dropped this season, Ustbyis still pulling down 9.4 boards per game.

However, her status is undetermined for Thursday’s game. Ustby exited UNC’s win over NC State two minutes into the first quarter with an undisclosed injury. Even if she misses the Tar Heels’ matchup with the Orange, UNC still has various pieces that can fill her place.

Published on February 19, 2025 at 10:48 pm

Contact Nicholas: njalumka@syr.edu | @nalumkal