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Saturday represents Syracuse’s first major test in conference play and, based on how Rutgers has unraveled, arguably its toughest opponent of the 2020-21 season. 

No. 16 Virginia Tech (11-2, 5-1 Atlantic Coast) enters the Carrier Dome as winners of seven of its last eight contests. The Hokies already boast wins over No. 3 Villanova, No. 20 Clemson and Duke. The Orange (8-4, 2-3), meanwhile, have had a tumultuous first month of 2021 featuring a COVID-19 pause and a 1-3 start to ACC play. 

All-time series

Syracuse leads, 10-5

Last time they played 

Syracuse met the Hokies in January 2020 in Blacksburg, Virginia. Buddy Boeheim matched his career-high of 26 points, including 18 in the first half, as Syracuse staved off a late VT push in a 71-69 win. Buddy, Marek Dolezaj and Elijah Hughes each played all 40 minutes in the win — SU’s third in a row at the time. 

Two weeks before that contest, Virginia Tech defeated SU in the Carrier Dome 67-63. Virginia Tech went on to finish .500 on the season and 7-13 in conference play.

KenPom odds 

Syracuse has a 55% chance to win at home, with a projected score of 71-70. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index predicts Syracuse has a 63% odds to win. 

The Virginia Tech report

The Hokies this year are as all-around as they come. While not elite at any aspect of the game, VT appears to be good at essentially everything. The KenPom report features the green distinction on just about every category, indicating strengths in every area. Notably, the Hokies are a top-45 offense and defense in terms of efficiency. 

With strong athletes at each position, the Hokies play man-to-man on defense. VT also has a balanced scoring attack, with three players averaging in double figures and another right behind at 9.8 points per game. In its most recent game, a 64-60 win against Wake Forest, Tyrece Radford led the way with 20 points while other main contributors Jalen Cone and Keve Aluma struggled. The win was a good example of VT’s solid depth. 

Past Hokies teams have been very dependent on 3-pointers, but this year’s group’s shot distribution is more even — a byproduct of Mike Young’s coaching approach compared to that of Buzz Williams.

Source: KenPom.com

How Syracuse beats Virginia Tech

VT is a very good offensive rebounding team, collecting 30.5% of its misses (96th in the nation). Syracuse might need to turn to reserve center Jesse Edwards once again. He played very well against Miami, but it’s unclear how consistent he’ll be able to perform on Saturday. 

Keeping the Hokies off the glass will be key for the Orange. Turnovers could also tilt the game in either direction. If Syracuse allows VT to get out in transition with live ball turnovers, it’ll be a wrap. And conversely, Syracuse will need to force VT miscues in the zone to stay in it, though the Hokies generally are safe with possessions (12.2 turnovers per game).  

Player to watch: Tyrece Radford, Guard, No. 23

Radford gives VT a rare tool as an elite rebounder and slasher in the backcourt. At 6-foot-2, he’s second on the team in rebounding, at 6.2 per game. He hauled in 12 boards against Duke, including four offensive. The redshirt sophomore is a superb athlete. His offensive stroke still needs work (22% from 3) but he’s more of a slasher now. It’s possible VT puts him at the free-throw line or in the dunker spot against the zone to try to get him chances at the rim, where he shoots 72.5%, per Hoop Math.

Stat to know: 48.8%

Hunter Cattoor has only started two games this year, but his role will likely expand in the Dome given his shooting stroke — and his teammates’ lack of shooting. He’ll be a major key to breaking SU’s 2-3 zone, as he’s made 20 of his 41 attempts this year. Against Wake Forest, the sophomore guard scored 13 points on 3-for-5 shooting from behind the arc.

Published on January 22, 2021 at 3:15 pm

Contact Danny: dremerma@syr.edu | @DannyEmerman